Briefings
Conflict, read through the data.
Long-form intelligence that reads a war through the independent signals most readers never see stitched together. Every figure is sourced, and the record is corrected wherever the primary data and the headlines diverge.
How Many Wars Are Going On Right Now? The 2026 Count
· 74 min read · Blackwing
Every published count of the world's wars side by side, from the research count that found more armed conflicts in 2025 than in any year since 1946 to legal counts past 130: what each one measures, and the wars behind the numbers.
The Strait of Hormuz and the Oil Shock
· 30 min read · Blackwing
In the June 2025 war Iran's parliament voted to close the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for a fifth of the world's oil, and the strait stayed open: Brent peaked near 80 dollars and then fell below where it started. Why that shock never came, and how the separate war of 2026, which did close the strait to normal traffic, overturned the argument.
How Many Died in the Twelve-Day War?
· 39 min read · Blackwing
Twenty-eight people were killed in Israel. In Iran the count runs anywhere from 1,062 to 1,190, and three serious tallies disagree about the one number that matters most: how many of the dead were civilians. This is what the record can establish, and where it has to stop.
What Really Happened to Fordow
· 40 min read · Blackwing
Four intelligence agencies gave four answers, from “obliterated” to “set back a few months.” This is what the primary data, the seismographs, the satellites, and the IAEA’s own accounting, can and cannot establish about the strike on Iran’s most protected nuclear site, and where the honest answer has to stop.
The Twelve-Day War in Seven Signals
· 50 min read · Blackwing
The June 2025 Israel-Iran-US war, read through seven independent instruments: seismographs, internet-outage monitors, flight and ship trackers, the markets, radiation networks and satellites. Sourced line by line, and corrected wherever the data and the headlines diverge.