Iran-Israel war of June 2025

Parties

• 

  Iran

  Target of the Israeli and US strikes on its nuclear, missile and military infrastructure; fired retaliatory ballistic-missile and drone barrages at Israel and a salvo at the US base in Qatar.

• 

  Israel

  Opened the campaign on 13 June with a mass air operation against Iran's nuclear programme, missile forces and military leadership; defended against Iran's missile and drone retaliation.

• 

  United States

  Struck the Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan nuclear sites on 21-22 June, defended Al Udeid Air Base against Iran's salvo, and brokered the ceasefire.

• 

  Qatar

  Host of the US Al Udeid Air Base struck by Iran on 23 June; condemned the strike and co-mediated the ceasefire. Not a belligerent.

• International Atomic Energy Agencyinternational body

  UN nuclear watchdog: censured Iran days before the war, reported on strike damage and radiation, and became the subject of Iran's subsequent suspension of cooperation. Not a belligerent.

Killed

Deaths on all sides across the twelve days and the immediate aftermath. The range spans the Iranian government's final official count plus the Israeli toll at the low end (1,062 + 28), and the highest independent documented Iranian count plus the Israeli toll at the high end (1,190 + 28). Iran's own count rose over successive releases, from 610 at the ceasefire to 1,062; the earlier figures are superseded, not a lower estimate. Hengaw's independent count of 1,082 for Iran sits inside the range. The Israeli figure of 28 is consistent across sources; the Iranian figure is contested between Iran's own releases and independent monitors. As of 31 Dec 2025.

Blackwing does not adjudicate between these figures. The headline range spans what credible sources publish, and the disagreement between them is itself part of the record.

Contested claims, resolved by crossed signals

Claims the public absorbed from the news, checked against the independent signals that bear on them. Where the crossed evidence settles a claim, Blackwing states plainly whether it is corroborated, contradicted, or left open, and links every signal to its source.

• contradicted

  A magnitude-4.3 “bunker-buster earthquake” shook Fordow when the US struck.

  Two independent global seismic catalogs are empty at Fordow across the entire war, and Iran’s own local stations recorded only tremors up to about magnitude 2. The viral M4.3 appears in no primary catalog. A 30,000-pound conventional bomb releases orders of magnitude less energy than even a small nuclear test, so it cannot register teleseismically. Seismology can time a blast; it cannot show whether centrifuges were destroyed.

  • Seismiccuts against

    A live query of the USGS catalog for the Fordow box across 13–24 June returns zero events.

    USGS Earthquake Hazards Program (FDSN)

  • Seismiccuts against

    The independent European-Mediterranean network (EMSC) returns no cataloged event at Fordow either.

    EMSC-CSEM seismicportal (FDSN)

  • Seismiccuts against

    Local Iranian stations recorded ~1,500 small blast tremors, reaching only about magnitude 2 near Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan.

    Mehdi Zare (IIEES), via IFP News
• contradicted

  Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz after the US strikes of June 2025.

  Iran’s parliament backed closing the Strait, but it was never physically closed before the ceasefire, and the money agreed: oil crashed about 7% the day Iran retaliated precisely because the strike spared the Strait and oil infrastructure. Transits fell about 20–25% as owners waited it out, but a slowdown is not a closure.

  • Maritimecuts against

    Parliament voted to back closure, but the decision rested with the Supreme National Security Council; the Strait was never physically closed.

    Axios; CNBC

  • Marketscuts against

    WTI fell about 7.2% on 23 June, its biggest one-day drop since April, as Iran’s telegraphed strike left the Strait and oil facilities untouched.

    CNN Business; Forbes

  • Maritimecuts against

    Daily transits dropped from 147 vessels on 9 June to 111 on 15 June as owners waited outside, a reduction of roughly 20 to 25 percent, not a stoppage.

    Windward; CNBC

  Since then

  This verdict is about June 2025 only. In the separate war that began on 28 February 2026, Iran's attacks on shipping closed the strait to normal traffic: from 28 February to late September 2026 the vessel capacity crossing it with transponders on averaged about 6 per cent of its 2025 level, by IMF PortWatch's count. Oil kept moving on tankers sailing dark, and by late October shipments were back to about 80 per cent of pre-war levels, Bloomberg reported.

  Iran-United States war of 2026
• contradicted

  Bombing Iran’s nuclear sites released radiation and risked a Chernobyl.

  Every authoritative monitor reported no off-site radiological release. Enrichment plants hold uranium hexafluoride, only weakly radioactive; the real hazard when one is hit is chemical, a toxic gas confined inside the building. That physics is exactly why the one genuine Chernobyl risk, the operating Bushehr power reactor, was deliberately left untouched.

  • Radiationcuts against

    The IAEA reported radioactivity outside Natanz stayed “unchanged and at normal levels,” and Iranian regulators reported no increase outside Fordow, Natanz or Isfahan.

    IAEA DG Grossi, statement to the UNSC

  • Radiationcuts against

    The dominant hazard inside a struck enrichment plant is chemical (hydrogen fluoride gas), with contamination confined to the damaged buildings.

    IAEA DG Grossi, UNSC statement

  • Radiationcuts against

    Bushehr, the one operating power reactor with thousands of kilograms of intensely radioactive material, was deliberately not targeted.

    Al Jazeera; Arms Control Association
• corroborated

  Iran deliberately cut its population off from the global internet.

  Corroborated, with the method the headlines missed. Independent monitors watched connectivity collapse to roughly 3% of normal. But unlike its 2019 plug-pull, Iran kept its routes announced and its domestic intranet and banking online, severing access to the global internet at the border with DNS poisoning and deep packet inspection: a deliberate “stealth blackout,” not a wire yanked.

  • Connectivitycorroborates

    Georgia Tech’s IODA measured Iranian internet usage collapsing to roughly 97% below normal at the peak around 18 June.

    IODA (Georgia Tech)

  • Connectivitycorroborates

    Access was severed at the border with DNS poisoning, protocol whitelisting and deep packet inspection, a deliberate targeting of the global internet.

    arXiv: Iran’s Stealth Internet Blackout; Miaan Group

  • Connectivitycorroborates

    The domestic National Information Network was kept running while foreign sites were cut off, showing the block was aimed squarely at the global internet.

    Miaan Group; Iran International

Linked records

Briefings

• How Many Wars Are Going On Right Now? The 2026 Count

  Every published count of the world's wars side by side, from the research count that found more armed conflicts in 2025 than in any year since 1946 to legal counts past 130: what each one measures, and the wars behind the numbers.

• The Strait of Hormuz and the Oil Shock

  In the June 2025 war Iran's parliament voted to close the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for a fifth of the world's oil, and the strait stayed open: Brent peaked near 80 dollars and then fell below where it started. Why that shock never came, and how the separate war of 2026, which did close the strait to normal traffic, overturned the argument.

• How Many Died in the Twelve-Day War?

  Twenty-eight people were killed in Israel. In Iran the count runs anywhere from 1,062 to 1,190, and three serious tallies disagree about the one number that matters most: how many of the dead were civilians. This is what the record can establish, and where it has to stop.

• What Really Happened to Fordow

  Four intelligence agencies gave four answers, from “obliterated” to “set back a few months.” This is what the primary data, the seismographs, the satellites, and the IAEA’s own accounting, can and cannot establish about the strike on Iran’s most protected nuclear site, and where the honest answer has to stop.

• The Twelve-Day War in Seven Signals

  The June 2025 Israel-Iran-US war, read through seven independent instruments: seismographs, internet-outage monitors, flight and ship trackers, the markets, radiation networks and satellites. Sourced line by line, and corrected wherever the data and the headlines diverge.

Standing sources

• Day-by-day event timeline

  Every recorded event of the war in order, each with its own page, coordinates, time and primary source. The same events play on the globe.CC BY 4.0

• Blackwing event record

  The same individually sourced events as machine-readable open data, with coordinates, times, casualty figures and primary-source links.CC BY 4.0

• International Atomic Energy Agency

  Official reporting on damage to Iran's nuclear facilities, safeguards status and radiation monitoring.

Other wars in the record

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• Armed conflicts in SyriaActive · Middle Eastat least18k–21k
• Iran-United States war of 2026Active · Middle Eastdisputed3,468–7,650
• Armed conflicts in LebanonCeasefire · Middle Eastat least9,053–9,984
• Israel and the Palestinian territoriesCeasefire · Middle Eastdisputed63k–75k
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• Armed conflicts in PakistanActive · Asiaat least10k–16k
• Armed conflicts in EthiopiaActive · Africaat least328k–383k
• Central Sahel insurgencyActive · Africaat least40k–56k
• Sudan civil warActive · Africaat least45k–125k
• Somalia insurgencyActive · Africaat least20k–25k
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