Active · Africa

Somalia insurgency

Killed

Verified

at least20k–25kDocumented

Counted from to . The published count and what it counts

Latest development ·

Dozens of Hawadle soldiers of the Somali National Army arrived at the Beledweyne residence of clan leader Ugas Yusuf Ugas Hassan after he called on Hawadle servicemen to leave their frontline posts, Somali Guardian reported, citing social media footage.

Somali Guardian All 28 developments

Status
Active
Sustained hostilities in the current reporting period.
Began
2006
Ongoing
Displaced
4.5M
Estimated, as of 31 Dec 2025
Classification
NIAC
A non-international armed conflict between the federal government, supported by an African Union mission and foreign air support, and jihadist armed groups.
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The Somali federal government, supported by an African Union mission and by foreign air strikes, continues to fight al-Shabaab, which holds territory across the south and centre of the country. A smaller Islamic State affiliate operates in Puntland. Unusually for the conflicts in this record, the large majority of recorded deaths are coded as combatants rather than civilians. Since March 2026, when parliament extended the federal terms of office and delayed elections, federal forces have also fought opposition and regional forces, in Baidoa and in Mogadishu, and in October they lost towns in Gedo to Jubaland forces and every major town in the Bay region except Baidoa to fighters loyal to the ousted South West State president.

Recorded deaths per month

667 deaths recorded from Jul to Sep 2026, the latest months UCDP has coded, against 1,022 from Apr to Jun 2026.

Deaths recorded per month, Oct 2024 to Sep 2026 (UCDP)

Oct 2024Sep 2026

UCDP counts direct deaths in incidents it codes under its own definitions, so these months are a documented floor.

Latest developments

  1. Dozens of Hawadle soldiers of the Somali National Army arrived at the Beledweyne residence of clan leader Ugas Yusuf Ugas Hassan after he called on Hawadle servicemen to leave their frontline posts, Somali Guardian reported, citing social media footage.

    Somali Guardian
  2. Somalia's Supreme Court declared null and void the constitutional amendments extending presidential and parliamentary terms, ruled that the president's administration is limited to caretaker functions, and ordered elections within 90 days, the Somali Guardian reported. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud had dismissed the chief justice a day earlier.

    Somali Guardian
  3. Barawe

    Uganda's military said it handed security responsibility for Barawe and Shalanbood in southern Somalia to the Somali National Army, ending more than a decade of Ugandan presence there, Somali Guardian reported.

    Somali Guardian
  4. Beledweyne

    Hawadle clan fighters took control of Beledweyne, the capital of Hiran region, over the weekend, including the provincial headquarters and other government offices, Somali Guardian reported, citing Caasimada Online. About 2,000 armed clan fighters are in the town as Hawadle political figures plan an administration separate from Mogadishu.

    Somali Guardian
  5. The United Nations Transitional Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNTMIS) ceased operations on Saturday, ending more than three decades of UN missions in the country at the request of the Somali government. The UN said its agencies, funds and programmes will keep working in Somalia.

    Somali Guardian
  6. A chartered aircraft carrying 109 Ugandan soldiers, the first contingent to leave, took off from Mogadishu airport on Friday, Somali Guardian reported. Army chief General Muhoozi Kainerugaba had announced on Thursday that Uganda had begun withdrawing. President Yoweri Museveni told Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud he would withdraw part of his forces before 15 November.

    Somali Guardian
  7. Baidoa

    Heavy fighting erupted on the outskirts of Baidoa between the Somali National Army and forces loyal to Abdiaziz Laftagareen, the former president of Southwest State, near Burjed. A Laftagareen faction official said army units travelling toward Burhakabo had been ambushed and the group said it killed dozens of soldiers; neither claim was independently confirmed.

    Somali Guardian
  8. Leego

    Al-Shabaab attacked a military convoy carrying supplies between the towns of Leego and Burhakaba, in the Bay region, setting off an hours-long battle, Somalia's Defense Ministry said. It said the militants drove an explosives-laden vehicle toward an army position. The ministry's casualty figures could not be independently verified.

    Anadolu Agency
20 earlier, back to 4 Mar 2026
  1. Buurhakaba

    Federal forces advancing on Buurhakaba, held by forces loyal to Laftagareen, suffered heavy casualties in fighting between Leego and Jameecada, Garowe Online reported, citing reports that numerous soldiers were killed and 36 military vehicles, including six Turkish-made Kirpi armoured vehicles, were lost.

    Garowe Online
  2. Burhakabo

    Somalia's federal government sent more than 200 military vehicles toward Burhakabo on Saturday, after forces loyal to former Southwest president Abdiasis Laftagaren seized the town last week, Somali Guardian reported. The government had not commented. Local media said at least three military vehicles were destroyed in roadside bomb attacks between Wanlawayn and Afgoye this week.

    Somali Guardian
  3. An alleged Turkish drone strike on Wednesday night killed two members of Laftagaren's forces on a motorcycle, local media reported, according to Somali Guardian. Hassan Abdulkadir, a former Southwest internal security minister and key figure behind those forces, escaped unharmed. It was unclear whether he was the target.

    Somali Guardian
  4. Dinsor, Berdale, Awdinle

    Forces of the ousted Southwest leader Abdiasis Laftagaren also seized Dinsor, Berdale and Awdinle towns on Thursday and Friday, Somali Guardian reported, leaving Baidoa as the only town in Bay region still under the federal government.

    Somali Guardian
  5. Burhakabo

    Forces loyal to the former Southwest State president, Abdiasis Laftagaren, seized Burhakabo, on the road between Mogadishu and Baidoa, after a brief gunfight, Somali Guardian reported. They displayed dozens of captured federal troops. The federal government had not commented.

    Somali Guardian
  6. Mogadishu

    Defence Minister Ahmed Moalim Fiqi said on Tuesday that authorities had removed 260 armed men from opposition leaders' homes in Mogadishu and held them in custody. He accused the United Arab Emirates of arming opposition leaders and alleged that forces linked to Puntland and Jubaland had been brought to Mogadishu.

    Somali Guardian
  7. Somalia's national anti-money-laundering committee added 10 people, including former South West State president Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed Laftagareen, to a financial sanctions list over suspected links to Al-Shabaab, requiring assets to be frozen. The published decision did not detail the evidence against each person.

    Garowe Online
  8. Mogadishu

    Large numbers of government forces, with military trucks and armoured vehicles, deployed around the residences of former President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed and former Prime Minister Hassan Ali Khaire near Mogadishu airport, as local media reported that President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud intended to disarm opposition leaders, Somali Guardian reported.

    Somali Guardian
  9. Hiran

    Al-Shabaab fighters captured Hees, in the central Hiran region near Mataban, after a brief battle with the Somali National Army, cutting a supply road for government troops in the area, Somali Guardian reported.

    Somali Guardian
  10. Qansah-dhere

    Forces loyal to Abdiasis Laftagaren, the former Southwest leader, took Qansah-dhere in the Bay region, 90 kilometers west of Baidoa, without a gunfight, local media reported. It was the first town to pass fully out of federal control since the federal offensive that removed him from power in late March.

    Somali Guardian
  11. Al-Shabaab said it had signed an agreement with the Hawadle clan to end a four-year conflict in the Hiran region, where the clan had fought it alongside federal troops; the government had not responded.

    Somali Guardian
  12. Jilib District

    The National Intelligence and Security Agency said it had killed Bashir Ahmed Haji Nunow, whom it called a former leader of al-Shabaab's Amniyaat assassination unit, in an overnight operation with international partners in Jilib District, state news agency SONNA reported.

    SONNA (Somali National News Agency)
  13. Bloomberg reported that Ethiopia planned to withdraw more than 3,000 troops from Somalia as fighting escalated at home; a Somali defence ministry official said Mogadishu had not been informed.

    Somali Guardian
  14. Baidoa

    The office of the former South West State president accused the federal government and Turkey of air strikes on Baidoa that it said killed civilians, including four children; the claims could not be independently verified.

    Somali Guardian
  15. Baidoa

    Fighters loyal to the former South West State president entered Baidoa and the army drove them out, an army commander said, as fighter jets and drones were reported over the city; MSF said three people died, including a health worker.

    Al Jazeera and AFP
  16. Baidoa

    Forces allied with the former South West State president clashed with the army in Baidoa for the second time in under a month; the government accused them of joining forces with al-Shabaab, which their spokespeople rejected.

    ACLED
  17. Mogadishu

    Heavy fighting broke out in Mogadishu between government and opposition forces near the homes of a former prime minister and a former president, ahead of protests against the president's term extension.

    Al Jazeera
  18. Jilib, Xagar, Afmadow

    The Defence Ministry said the army, with Jubbaland forces and air strikes by international partners, killed 27 al-Shabaab fighters in Jilib, Xagar and Afmadow districts.

    Al Jazeera
  19. Baidoa

    Federal troops and allied fighters took control of Baidoa, capital of South West State, and the state's president, an opponent of the constitutional changes, resigned and left for Kenya.

    Somalia Today
  20. Parliament amended the constitution to extend presidential and parliamentary terms from four to five years, delaying elections planned for May 2026; opposition leaders rejected the change.

    Asharq Al-Awsat

The new developments in this war, the morning after they enter the record, by email or as a feed: Blackwing Desk.

Parties

  • Somalia

    The federal government and its armed forces.

  • Al-Shabaabnon-state armed group

    Al-Qaeda-affiliated armed group holding territory in southern and central Somalia.

  • African Union Support and Stabilization Mission (AUSSOM)international body

    The African Union force supporting the federal government since January 2025, successor to ATMIS and AMISOM. Uganda, which has troops in Somalia under it and under a separate bilateral agreement, began withdrawing them in late October.

Killed

at least20k–25kDocumented

Direct deaths from organised violence recorded by UCDP in 2,218 individually sourced incidents since 1 Jan 2020: a best estimate of 21,109, 1,492 of them coded as civilian. The range is UCDP's own low and high bounds per incident, summed. UCDP's count excludes indirect deaths from disease, starvation and collapsed health care, and any violence that never reached a sourceable report, so it is a documented floor rather than a total. Roughly 3,080 of these deaths come from UCDP's provisional candidate releases and may be revised. As of .

SourceFigure
UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset (Uppsala University)

2,218 recorded incidents. UCDP publishes a low, best and high bound for every incident; this is the sum of each.

20,888–24,871 (best estimate 21,109)As of

Displaced

4.5MEstimated

People forcibly displaced from Somalia at the end of 2025, as UNHCR counts them: 3,347,408 displaced inside the country and 1,128,308 refugees and asylum-seekers abroad. UNHCR does not record why each person fled, so this counts displacement by every conflict and persecution in Somalia, not only by the fighting this record follows, and anyone who has gone home is no longer in it. As of .

SourceFigure
UNHCR Refugee Data Finder

UNHCR's official population statistics. Licensed CC BY 4.0.

3,347,408 internally displaced; 1,128,308 refugees and asylum-seekersAs of

Briefings

  • How Many Wars Are Going On Right Now? The 2026 Count

    Every published count of the world's wars side by side, from the research count that found more armed conflicts in 2025 than in any year since 1946 to legal counts past 130: what each one measures, and the wars behind the numbers.

Standing sources

Other wars in the record

Last verified