Active · Africa

Central Sahel insurgency

Killed

Verified

at least40k–56kDocumented

Counted from to . All 3 published counts and what each one counts

Latest development · , Arlit

An Algerian army convoy reached Arlit, a uranium mining town in northwestern Niger, in the first foreign troop deployment by Algeria since 1973, according to 10 people who spoke to Reuters. Algeria has not disclosed the size of the force or the timetable for its arrival.

Asharq Al-Awsat (Reuters) All 16 developments

Status
Active
Sustained hostilities in the current reporting period.
Began
Jan 2012
Ongoing
Displaced
4.0M
Estimated, as of 31 Dec 2025
Classification
NIAC
Non-international armed conflicts between three states and jihadist armed groups operating across their shared borders, with substantial inter-communal and militia violence alongside.
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Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger face a linked insurgency by groups affiliated with al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, operating across the borders between them. Burkina Faso alone accounts for more recorded deaths than either neighbour, and roughly a third of recorded deaths across the three are coded as civilian. All three states have seen military coups since 2020 and have withdrawn from regional security arrangements. In 2026 the al-Qaeda-affiliated JNIM, allied with the Tuareg-led Azawad Liberation Front, mounted coordinated offensives across Mali, in which the defence minister was killed and the two groups claimed Kidal, and declared a blockade of Bamako, while attacks in Niger intensified. In October the Azawad Liberation Front withdrew from Kidal and the army, backed by Russian fighters, re-entered the city.

On the name
Not a single named war but one contiguous conflict system spanning Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, which is why the figures below are the sum across the three states rather than a national total.

Recorded deaths per month

1,175 deaths recorded from Jul to Sep 2026, the latest months UCDP has coded, against 1,932 from Apr to Jun 2026.

Deaths recorded per month, Oct 2024 to Sep 2026 (UCDP)

Oct 2024Sep 2026

UCDP counts direct deaths in incidents it codes under its own definitions, so these months are a documented floor.

Latest developments

  1. Arlit

    An Algerian army convoy reached Arlit, a uranium mining town in northwestern Niger, in the first foreign troop deployment by Algeria since 1973, according to 10 people who spoke to Reuters. Algeria has not disclosed the size of the force or the timetable for its arrival.

    Asharq Al-Awsat (Reuters)

  2. Algeria's presidency announced that President Abdelmadjid Tebboune had ordered troops to Niger, at the request of Niger's authorities, to protect shared energy and economic interests, after both chambers of parliament approved on Sunday. It would be Algeria's first overseas deployment since 1973. The number of soldiers and the timing were not announced.

    Al Jazeera (with Reuters)

  3. Goundam

    A drone strike by Mali's army on a nomad camp at Laghlaf, near Lerneb, in the Goundam circle of the Tombouctou region, killed 13 civilians, including six children, overnight from Sunday to Monday, RFI reported, citing local sources. The army staff did not comment on the strike.

    RFI via allAfrica

  4. Agadez

    Niger's government said a drone strike launched from Chad, with the support of France, hit the Émiloulou area of the Agadez region around 1:00 on 24 October and killed two civilians. It said it would summon Chad's ambassador and seek an independent international investigation. The claims could not be independently verified.

    Tchadinfos

  5. Niger's defence minister, Salifou Modi, and Algeria's army chief of staff, Saïd Chengriha, signed a military cooperation protocol in Algiers on 21 October, Radio France Internationale reported. Its terms were not disclosed. Four Algerian fighter jets deployed to Niger after the 29 August mutiny in Niamey remain at the capital's airport.

    Radio France Internationale via allAfrica

  6. Burkina Faso's parliament adopted a revised penal code restoring the death penalty, nearly a decade after abolition, the Justice Ministry said. It covers terrorism, espionage and treason, among other crimes. The 71-member assembly voted unanimously. The government presented it as part of its response to the insurgency; rights groups say it could be used against critics.

    Reuters via Internazionale

  7. Ménaka

    Fighters of the Islamic State's Sahel Province on motorcycles attacked at least five localities in the Ménaka region on Sunday, targeting camps mostly of the Idaksahak community, two security sources and two local officials told Reuters. The provisional toll ranged from 48 to over 70; the community's executive office recorded at least 48 dead in Tagadayat.

    Bénin Web TV, citing Reuters

  8. Oudalan

    Fighting between JNIM and Islamic State Sahel Province took place mainly on 9 October at Gonadaouri, in Oudalan province, Burkina Faso, and reportedly killed several hundred people, Radio France Internationale reported. JNIM made no official statement, and no reliable independent toll exists.

    Radio France Internationale via allAfrica
8 earlier, back to 25 Apr 2026

  1. Kidal

    The Azawad Liberation Front said it had carried out a 'strategic and controlled withdrawal' from Kidal, which it captured with JNIM in April, and the army, which said it was conducting large-scale air and ground operations in the region with its Russian partners, said it had entered the city.

    Africanews with AFP

  2. Two attacks claimed by Islamic State Sahel Province, on 23 and 26 September, killed more than 50 members of Niger's security forces, security sources told Reuters.

    Reuters via Internazionale

  3. Sévaré, Konna

    JNIM said it had struck air defence systems at Sévaré airport and killed 33 pro-government fighters in Sévaré and Konna, where its fighters appeared to have encircled the army camp, Reuters reported.

    Reuters via BusinessDay

  4. Kacham

    Islamic State Sahel Province claimed to have killed more than 200 JNIM fighters near Kacham in northern Burkina Faso earlier in September; ACLED said that, if accurate, it would be the deadliest battle between the two groups it has recorded.

    ACLED

  5. Dioura

    JNIM attacked the army camp at Dioura in central Mali. A security source told Reuters 130 soldiers died and more than 100 were taken hostage; JNIM claimed 150.

    Reuters via BusinessDay

  6. Gao, Anefis, Aguelhok, Sévaré, Konna, Bamako

    JNIM and the Azawad Liberation Front launched a new wave of coordinated attacks on Gao, Anefis, Aguelhok, Sévaré, Konna and a prison near Bamako; the army said the attacks were repelled.

    AFP via France 24

  7. JNIM declared in a video that all routes into Bamako and the garrison town of Kati were blocked, warning that anyone trying to enter risked death.

    Africanews with AFP

  8. Bamako, Kati, Sévaré, Mopti, Gao, Kidal

    JNIM and the Azawad Liberation Front launched coordinated attacks on Bamako, Kati, Sévaré, Mopti, Gao and Kidal. A military source told Al Jazeera that Mali's defence minister, Sadio Camara, had been killed, and the two groups claimed control of Kidal.

    Al Jazeera

The new developments in this war, the morning after they enter the record, by email or as a feed: Blackwing Desk.

Parties

  • Burkina Faso (supported in places by VDP militia units)

    State party; the worst-affected of the three by recorded deaths. The Geneva Academy names its auxiliary VDP units in the classification rather than folding them into 'government forces', and this record follows that practice.

  • Mali (supported by Russia's Africa Corps)

    State party, where the insurgency began in 2012. Its Russian co-belligerent is named rather than hidden inside 'government forces': the Wagner Group until it announced its withdrawal in June 2025, Russia's Africa Corps since.

  • Niger

    State party, affected principally in its western and southeastern borderlands.

  • Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM)non-state armed group

    Al-Qaeda-affiliated coalition operating across the three states.

  • Islamic State Sahel Provincenon-state armed group

    Islamic State affiliate operating in the tri-border area, known as Islamic State in the Greater Sahara until it became the Islamic State's Sahel Province in 2022.

  • Azawad Liberation Front (FLA)non-state armed group

    Tuareg-led separatist coalition in northern Mali, allied with JNIM in the coordinated offensives of 2026.

Killed

at least40k–56kDocumented

Direct deaths from organised violence recorded by UCDP across Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger in 6,025 individually sourced incidents since 1 Jan 2020: a best estimate of 43,185, 15,059 of them coded as civilian. The range is UCDP's own per-incident low and high bounds, summed. It excludes indirect deaths and any violence that never reached a sourceable report, so it is a documented floor rather than a total. As of .

SourceFigure
UCDP, Burkina Faso 20,623–28,548As of
UCDP, Mali 13,677–18,910As of
UCDP, Niger 5,726–8,184As of

Displaced

4.0MEstimated

People forcibly displaced from Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger at the end of 2025, as UNHCR counts them: 2,936,643 displaced inside those countries and 1,071,646 refugees and asylum-seekers abroad. UNHCR does not record why each person fled, so this counts displacement by every conflict and persecution in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, not only by the fighting this record follows, and anyone who has gone home is no longer in it. As of .

SourceFigure
UNHCR Refugee Data Finder, Mali

UNHCR's official population statistics. Licensed CC BY 4.0.

414,524 internally displaced; 543,367 refugees and asylum-seekersAs of
UNHCR Refugee Data Finder, Burkina Faso

UNHCR's official population statistics. Licensed CC BY 4.0.

2,062,534 internally displaced; 421,026 refugees and asylum-seekersAs of
UNHCR Refugee Data Finder, Niger

UNHCR's official population statistics. Licensed CC BY 4.0.

459,585 internally displaced; 107,253 refugees and asylum-seekersAs of

Briefings

  • How Many Wars Are Going On Right Now? The 2026 Count

    Every published count of the world's wars side by side, from the research count that found more armed conflicts in 2025 than in any year since 1946 to legal counts past 130: what each one measures, and the wars behind the numbers.

Standing sources

Other wars in the record

Last verified